Tony’s Weather Blog

Yet another winter storm flop

The forecasters persisted throughout the night and into the morning (Feb 1) with >6" predictions; but finally threw in the towel at 1100 and canceled the winter storm warning. By 0900, we had only 4½" of snow and nothing promising on the radar.

To make matters worse, while snowblowing this morning I twisted my knee falling on the ice … and laid sprawled on the street at the end of my driveway for a couple of minutes before I was able to get up. And then as I was finishing up the sidewalk area at the corner (where the snow trucks pile the snow), the auger on my snowblower broke with loud banging, leaving a divot in the sidewalk.

Not exactly a good way to start the month.

awc 2008-02-01 13:31:23

Major winter storm anticipated

Earlier this afternoon, the forecast for the winter storm expected to move into our area tonight from the southwest indicated a significant chance for a period of sleet or freezing rain tomorrow morning. Consequently, the forecasted snowfall from the storm was "5 to 15 inches". Quite a spread!

The latest guidance is that we will get all snow.

NWS Forecast for: Fort Wayne IN
Issued by: National Weather Service Northern Indiana
Last Update: 3:08 pm EST Jan 31, 2008

This Afternoon: A 10 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 26. Calm wind.

Tonight: Periods of snow with areas of blowing snow, mainly after midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 23. Breezy, with a east wind between 15 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Friday: Periods of snow with areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 30. North wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

This is a lot better: 9 to 17 inches! However, as we all know, they tend to overestimate the snowfall that will fall at my house (i.e. they tend to not take into account that I live here).

The hourly forecast for water equivalent and snowfall is show below. The total snowfall according to that graphic is 13.3 inches.

awc 2008-01-31 15:19:59

Blast of cold air with unusually low pressure

Last week was chilly with light snow about every other day; culminating in a low of -1°F on Friday (25 Jan). Temperatures moderated over the next couple of days, and then steadily warmed from Monday until 20:25 Tuesday evening (29 Jan).

At that point, with the temperature at its high of the day of 52.8°F, the barometric pressure bottomed out at 28.95", the wind picked up, and an intense downpour moved through. By 21:00, we had nearly 0.2" rain, the winds were gusting to nearly 25mph, and the temperature had dropped to 46°F. For the next hour, light rain was blown about by gusty 20-25mph winds, and the temperature continued dropping to 35°F at 22:00. The rain ended, replaced with occasional light snow blown around by winds gusting up to 30mph for the next couple of hours as the temperature continued to fall, reaching 14.4°F at midnight.

The winds howled all night, with a maximum gust of 32mph, as the temperature continued drifting lower, bottoming out at 6.1°F by 07:30 this morning (30 Jan).

The temperature dropped 38.4°F in 3½ hours, or nearly 1 degree every 5½ minutes. The pressure reading of 28.95" was the lowest I've recorded here in Fort Wayne (data collection began in Dec 2005), smashing the previous low of 29.10".

The NWS had previously issued a Winter Storm Watch for our area for last night; but late yesterday afternoon canceled it. The snow line, as seen on the natural color MODIS image shown here, was fairly sharp, and stayed about 40 miles to the west and then north of us.

The NWS is making big promises for Thursday night into Friday morning:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
413 PM EST WED JAN 30 2008

…SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY…

ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY AND TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA…WITH SNOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL REMAINS IN QUESTION…6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

…WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING…

ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES… AS WELL AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

awc 2008-01-30 16:24:35

Winter Storm miss; warmest January night ever

The winter storm predicted for New Year's Eve into New Year's Day failed to live up to expectations. Although snowfall was predicted (as late as New Year's Eve morning) to arrive in the afternoon or early evening, nothing happened until after 2100, and then it was only rain.

The rain did eventually change to snow, with light to moderate snow throughout New Year's Day. We wound up with 3" of snow by nightfall. A brief cold snap followed, with the high temperatures for the next two days at or just below 20°F.

That was followed by several days of moderating temperatures, culminated yesterday with the warmest January 7th ever, and, in fact, the warmest January low ever. The official high of 66°F shattered the previous daily record of 59 set in 1989; while the official low of 55 erased the previous record warm low for January of 52 set in 1950.

January 7th ended with a line of strong thunderstorms, the preceding edge of a large blob of precipitation which has dumped slightly more than an inch of rain on us so far.

awc 2008-01-08 10:06:51

Winter Storm Report

Between 01:00 and 10:00 on the morning of the 16th (Sunday), approximately 6" snow fell, giving us a storm total of 8". It was fairly breezy most of the 16th, and snow cover ranged from 6-12" throughout the yard. We were on the southern fringe of the most intense snowfall; locations 10 to 20 miles to the northwest reported up to 12" of snow from the storm. Contrast that with the official storm snowfall of 6.7" at the airport (13 miles southwest of us).

The snow cover survived most of the following week, but began melting in earnest on Saturday the 22nd with rain and temperatures in the upper 40s. The continued rain on Sunday the 23rd, with the temperature topping out at nearly 52°, erased all but the most stubborn piles of snow.

So, no white Christmas at our house; though snow cover remains yet less than 10 miles north of our house (and up through Michigan).

We had about an inch of snow on the 27th (Thursday), but it was quickly erased by rainfall the following day.

This morning, we had a light, fluffy, quarter inch of snow by daybreak. It is sunny at the moment, through a veil of cirrostratus; but, the NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for later today through tomorrow (New Year's Day) morning:

A winter storm system will move across the region tonight allowing for periods of moderate to heavy snow. Snowfall will overspread the watch area late this afternoon or early this evening…with expected accumulations of 5 to 9 inches by Tuesday morning. Winds will increase from the north and northwest early Tuesday and will promote blowing and drifting snow through the day.

awc 2007-12-31 10:48:39

Winter Storm Prelude?

Very light snow began falling about 10:30 this morning (12-15) and continued throughout the day with occasional breaks. By nightfall, we had barely managed a half an inch of snow. The snow picked up slightly in intensity then, with sleet mixed in at times. By 22:15, we had a bit over an inch of snow on the ground. As of now (01:00 12-16), we have perhaps two inches of snow.

From the radar images throughout the day, it looks as though the first center of snow moved to the south and east of us throughout the day; and the second appears to be moving to the west and north of us tonight. The NWS is still hanging on to its forecast of 8 to 12 inches of snow by nightfall Sunday. The NWS forecast also mentions the possibility of thundersnow (cool!).

The current Indianapolis radar (below) shows two intense pockets of snow (perhaps 40-50 miles in diameter) headed our way. One just entering southern Allen County (near Bluffton) stretching back to Muncie, and the second stretching south-southeast from Bloomington.

awc 2007-12-16 01:29:53

Winter Storm Warning

ORIGINAL ENTRY at 11:40 AM

During the major Midwest ice storm of Monday-Tuesday, our temperatures started above freezing and climbed to nearly 40°. So, we only got rain.

The NWS is promising significant snowfall Saturday and Sunday; currently giving us hope for at least 3 to 5 inches. The most intense snowfall is expected between midnight and 7am Sunday.

UPDATE at 4:30 PM

Official NWS forecast page for Fort Wayne / Allen County now says:

Saturday: Periods of snow, mainly after 9am. High near 30. East wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Saturday Night: Periods of snow with areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Blustery, with a northeast wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.

Sunday: Periods of snow with areas of blowing snow, mainly before 10am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 26. Blustery, with a north wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Here's the snow portion of the NWS hourly forecast graph:

They're predicting 15.3" of snow in a 36 hour period. That would be totally awesome!!

UPDATE at 2AM 12-15

Here's the latest hourly forecast graph for snow. They've backed down the forecast a bit, particularly for the overnight Sat-Sun period, to a total of 13.7" in a 36 hour period. That would still be awesome!!

awc 2007-12-14 16:47:15

Ice Storm, Round 1

With a stationary front a bit south of the Ohio River that is expected to stay in place for a few days, with transient lows kicking out of Texas and tracking along it, the scenario that brought ¼" of ice to Fort Wayne by mid-morning yesterday (Dec 9) is expected to repeat once or twice over the next few days.

The warm moist air from Dixie overrunning the relatively colder air entrenched over the Midwest (particularly northern Indiana and northwest Ohio) brought a brief period of sleet late Saturday evening which quickly degenerated into freezing rain, which lasted about 16 hours, ending around 16:00 Sunday afternoon.

My anemometer froze about 13:45 Sunday, and hasn't thawed out yet even though the temperature was (barely) above freezing for almost two hours this afternoon.

awc 2007-12-10 15:01:13

3 inches of snow from a classic clipper

A fairly classic Alberta Clipper storm swooped across MN, WI, northern IL & southern Lake Michigan into northern IN yesterday (Dec 4^th). Snow began at our house around 2100-2130. For 12 hours, we had a steady light snow, leaving 3" on my deck. The snow measured 4-6" on the yard; but being the first real snow of the season, the grass hasn't packed down yet. The main core of the storm passed a little to our west and south (probably closer to here than Indianapolis), where unconfirmed reports of up to 6" have been heard.

This past Saturday (Dec 1^st) beginning around 1430, we had 30-45 minutes of nearly moderate snow (no more than ¼"), about an hour of sleet, and then a couple of hours of freezing rain, before changing over to several hours of rain (through Sunday evening). The temperatures had been cold enough that the snow stuck on the streets in our neighborhood, and then the sleet and freezing rain glazed them over to make driving quite treacherous until late in the evening on Saturday.

awc 2007-12-05 10:12:45

Thanksgiving / Black Friday snow showers; record November daily rainfall

While we were at the Komets game Thanksgiving evening, snow showers passed over that part of Fort Wayne, coming to an end shortly after the Komets snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by giving up four goals in a seven minute stretch in the middle of the third period. At least I did get my first autograph on my Komets jersey, Guy Dupuis #2.

Anyway, there was about ¼" snow (mixed flakes and pellets) on the vehicles in the parking lot and on the grassy areas at about 2230 as we moped out of the coliseum. As we drove home, snow cover disappeared somewhere between Maplecrest and Lahmeyer Roads; only flurries had occurred at home.

Black Friday morning, I awoke at 0823 and noticed about ¼" snow on the fallen leaves in the yard and on the deck. Sunshine was breaking through and snow in unshaded areas quickly melted.

These snow showers were tail ends of fingers of lake-effect snow streaming southeastward from Lake Michigan.

By the way, we had an official record rainfall on the day before Thanksgiving. The NWS station at the airport reported 2.44" of rain that day. Not only did this shatter the old record for 11-21 of 0.88", it also set a new single November day record, besting the 2.4" of 1992-11-12. We “only” had 1.64" here on the northeast side of Fort Wayne.

awc 2007-11-23 12:31:48